21 November, 2016

O Solo Mio!

December 5th 2016. Could Italy be the next domino to fall ? A few facts to start with. Italy's economic growth has been slower than an escargot for over a decade, so slow in fact, that the woeful economy of Japan has out- paced that if Italy.

Italy has the third largest economy in the Eurozone, so if the populist uprising in England and United States is any measure, Italy will be saying ciao to the Eurozone.

According to Boris Schlossberg's article in Money and Markets on November15! 2016, Anti- EU Bloc May Doom The Euro, the  referendum was originally supposed to be a vote on reforming how Italy conducts its governmental business, changing decision making from the regional governments, to a national one.

Given the history of the chaotic regional governments, where decision making is like taking a cork out of a bottle of Chianti with your teeth, the plan is to centralize decision making. Given Italy's record of regional ineptitude, coupled with the weakness of its banking system, this seems like a reasonable alternative.

But hold on to your pizza pie! This is turning out to be an uprising by the populists who feel that the referendum is no more than than the elite force feeding them a large, all- dressed pizza down their throats,

Mr. Renzi, the current prime minister , is pulling out all the stops from challenges from both the Northern League Party and The Five Star Movement.

Coincidentally, the ruling party are Democrats, and Beppe Grillo , the leader of the Five Star Party, is a former comedian. No joke!

Based solely on these two facts, Italy will vote out the Democrats, and bring in a populist party.

Dean Martin would not be amused! Stay tuned.